Dec 16, 2005  |  By: MATT HENNIE  | COMMENTS     

Despite the DEFEANING buzz, “Brokeback Mountain” will be a critical success and a commercial flop. And I’m ready to be slapped with the label of “gay heretic” for saying so.

You can’t open a newspaper, read blogs or converse with a group of gay friends these days without hearing about Heath, Jake and the gay cowboy movie. It’s great that a gay movie is getting such mainstream attention, even if the actors and P.R. flacks for the flick downplay its overt gayness and cringe at it being called the “Big Gay Cowboy Movie.”

But the movie will be a commercial failure. The Hollywood infrastructure, including distributor Focus Features, knows it. Focus execs say they’re marketing the film “dead center in the middle of the country,” but it’s clear that’s hardly the case.

The movie’s in trouble, and that’s a shame that will overshadow the courage of director Ang Lee and others who worked hard to bring Annie Proulx’s touching 1997 short story to the big screen.

“Brokeback” opened in five screens in three markets on Dec. 9, expanding to little more than 20 markets and 60 theaters on Friday. If there’s commercial support, the movie will continue its slow rollout Jan. 6 in 20 additional markets and possibly stretch to 100 markets a week later.

It’s one of many moves to keep the movie from falling flat.

“Brokeback” opened AFTER Jake Gyllenhaal proved his heterosexual manliness strutting around in “Jarhead” and just before Heath Ledger leads in “Casanova.” It’s difficult to read coverage of “Brokeback” without finding details of Ledger’s on- and off-screen romance with Michelle Williams, who plays Ledger’s on-screen wife. They met on the set, became romantically entangled and now have a weeks-old daughter.

The movie was made on a shoestring budget of $12.5 million. Producers even moved the shoot to Canada to take advantage of its apparent cheaper production costs. That budget didn’t come because Hollywood sniffed success; it came because they smelled the stink of a budget-breaker if they put a more typical movie budget behind it.

Left-leaning Hollywood sensed that red state America wasn’t quite ready for such a flick, so they began a subtle but focused effort to pump up “Brokeback” among their movie critic friends and decision-makers in the awards business.

And boy, did that ever work out well.

On Tuesday, “Brokeback” garnered seven Golden Globe nominations, often a strong predictor of later Oscar success. And when the Oscars are announced March 5, expect the current buzz surrounding the movie — and particularly Heath Ledger’s performance — to translate into gold.

When the film widens its release, though, that critical acclaim and buzz will fall flat. What critics like and what audiences flock to are often very different things. Consider the “Shrek” franchise.

Sure, theaters showing “Brokeback” this weekend will be filled with gay men and a handful of supportive girlfriends. But that’s not enough to spell commercial success. Given the current political climate across the U.S., it won’t be a surprise — at least not to me.

AMERICA ISN’T ready to watch a two-hour film about two gay cowboys. Many of our allies can’t stomach the thought of same-sex marriage and gays in the military, let alone their more conservative neighbors. I can’t imagine them, then, shelling out $9 to see a movie that will put faces on issues that silently make them shudder.

Supporters of the film will surely point to box office figures to argue that the movie is destined to become a blockbuster. In limited release Dec. 9-11, “Brokeback” grossed $544,549 and carried a per screen average of $108,910, according to the Los Angeles Times.

The figures account for just five screens in three gay-heavy cities — Los Angeles, New York and San Francisco. I’d be surprised if the movie had anything but stellar attendance from the gayborhoods in those places.

But consider that when the movie goes into wide release Friday, its reach expands to just 60 theaters in 20 new markets. Many of those screens will be in smaller, not-so-well-attended or easy-to-get-to arthouses. Major movie chains appear to have initially shied away from “Brokeback.” Is it a stretch to think mainstream America will follow suit?

I’m all for “Brokeback” becoming the first gay-themed movie to find mainstream commercial success. But what about “Philadelphia,” “The Birdcage” or “In & Out”? All three featured major stars in gay roles and found the crossover audience appeal that delivers box office success. Unlike “Brokeback,” all three didn’t require intense physical intimacy between their stars and weren’t gay love stories.

I’ll be one of the first to cram into the dank theater to see it this weekend. But unfortunately, I doubt I’ll be rubbing elbows with many straight folks.