Nov 03, 2006  |  By: JOSHUA LYNSEN  | COMMENTS     

With just days remaining before the Nov. 7 election, in which Maryland voters will choose a governor and a new U.S. senator, several new polls are yielding inconsistent and confusing results.

A poll of 800 likely voters published Wednesday by The Baltimore Sun showed Baltimore Mayor Martin O’Malley (D) with 47 percent of the vote and incumbent Gov. Robert Ehrlich (R) with 46 percent. The poll’s margin of error is 3.5 percent.

But another poll published by The Washington Post this week put O’Malley at 55 percent and Ehrlich at 45 percent.

Equality Maryland Executive Director Dan Furmansky said he and other gay activists are working furiously to oust the incumbent governor. The group has endorsed O’Malley.

“If Gov. Ehrlich is governor for four more years,” Furmansky said, “we can kiss good-bye any legislative advancements for our community.”

The Maryland Court of Appeals will hear a case challenging the state’s ban on same-sex unions on Dec. 4. A lower court ruled that the ban is unconstitutional.

Furmansky said Ehrlich likely would rail against any ruling expanding gay rights.

“This man will use the bully pulpit to pass an amendment if we win in court,” he said. “He’ll call a special session. He’ll push to take away the rights that have been granted by the courts. This is something that should scare us. It’s an invidious form of discrimination.”

Ehrlich endorsed an amendment effort, which died in committee earlier this year.

O’Malley supports civil unions, but opposes gay marriage. He also opposes amending the state constitution to ban same-sex marriage.

Polls are also split in the race to succeed retiring U.S. Sen. Paul Sarbanes (D). Rep. Ben Cardin, who received an 88 out of 100 on the Human Rights Campaign scorecard for the 109th congressional session, is battling Republican Lieutenant Gov. Michael Steele for the seat.

Cardin favors civil unions over equal marriage rights, and Steele is a vocal opponent of gay marriage.

An Oct. 10 poll for WMAR-TV in Baltimore found Cardin and Steele polling evenly at 46 percent. The poll of 698 likely voters had a 3.8 percent margin of error. But the Post poll put Cardin at 54 percent and Steele at 43.

Furmansky said Equality Maryland cannot endorse in the U.S. Senate race, but hopes to work with Cardin.

“I think he has a commitment to advancing rights for LGBT people,” he said. “I hope we’ll have him representing us in the U.S. Senate so that we can continue to dialogue with him … and move forward with things we agree on.”

Conservative groups are pulling for Steele. In an e-mail sent last week to Marylanders, Focus on the Family Chair James Dobson urged voters to “encourage” Steele.

“Don’t let the abortion industry and advocates of homosexual marriage have their way in Maryland,” Dobson wrote.

John Willis, a University of Baltimore school of public affairs professor, said voter turnout will be the deciding factor in the state’s biggest races.

“At this stage,” he said, “it’s all about mobilization.”

Gay candidates on ballot

Stumping for Cardin and O’Malley in the final days before the election are gay state office candidates such as Rich Madaleno and Heather Mizeur.

Madaleno, who faces little opposition in his bid to become Maryland’s first openly gay state senator in District 18, said he’s working to “get as many Democrat and friendly independent voters to show up and vote for Martin O’Malley and Ben Cardin, not just Rich Madaleno.”

Madaleno and Mizeur are working phone banks and dropping leaflets in left-leaning Montgomery County, pushing voters to support Democratic candidates.

“Statewide Democratic candidates rely on districts like ours to pump out really high numbers to make up for low turnout or low Democratic numbers in other parts of the state,” said Mizeur, a candidate for state delegate in District 20.

Rick Bowers, the chair of Defend Maryland Marriage and a Republican delegate candidate in District 13 (Howard County), said GOP volunteers are matching Democratic efforts.

“I think both camps are doing the same thing,” he said. “The Republicans, just like the Democrats, are doing all they can.”

In addition to Madaleno and Mizeur, three other openly gay candidates are on the ballot in Maryland.

State delegate incumbents Anne Kaiser in District 14 (Montgomery County) and Maggie McIntosh in District 43 (Baltimore) are expected to win their re-election bids.

Tim Quinn is working to unseat Republican Del. Jeannie Haddaway in District 37B (Dorchester and Wicomico counties) along Maryland’s usually conservative Eastern Shore.