Oct 19, 2007  |  By: ELIZABETH PERRY  | COMMENTS     

The possibility of the Democrats taking control of the Virginia Senate has some Republicans taking increasingly gay-friendly positions and gay activists speculating about the effect such an outcome would have on their issues.

Tom Osborne, treasurer of Virginia Partisans Gay & Lesbian Democratic Club, said there’s a “strong possibility” the Democrats will take control of the Senate Nov. 6. With 23 Republicans and 17 Democrats in the Senate, the Democrats only need to pick up four seats to gain control.

To gain control of the state’s House of Delegates, Democrats would need to pick up 11 seats but are hoping to eventually pick up those seats in the next two election cycles before a redistricting plan goes into effect. Senators elected this year will remain in office during the redistricting.

“For the last decade we have been living under a legislature drawn to favor conservative Republicans,” Osborne said. “If we fail to take the Senate, the LGBT community can expect the deck to be stacked against them for the next 15 years.”

More than one-third of the candidates up for re-election for Virginia General Assembly are unopposed: 61 House delegates (out of 100) and 15 senators (out of 40). Osborne cited eight races featuring Republican incumbents that he thinks have a good chance of being won by Democrats.

“In Northern Virginia there are three Republican senators representing Fairfax that have trended more Democratic in the past several elections,” he said. “All of the districts that voted for Gov. Tim Kaine and Senator Jim Webb also voted against the Virginia marriage amendment. Republicans are swimming against the tide in their own districts.”

He said some of the key Senate races in Northern Virginia this election cycle are: Janet Oleszek (D) v. Ken Cuccinelli (R), District 37; George Barker (D) v. Jay O’Brien (R), District 39; Chap Petersen (D) v. Jeannemarie Devolites Davis (R), District 34; and Karen Schultz (D) v. Jill Holtzman Vogel (R), District 27. Two important races outside of Northern Virginia are in the Tidewater area: Stephen Heretick (D) v. Frederick Quayle (R), District 13; and Ralph Northam (D) v. Nick Rerras (R).

Osborne said the District 27 seat may go Democratic when moderate Republican Sen. H. Russell Potts of Winchester retires at the end of this term. Osborne said he thinks voters will be more likely to vote for Schultz over her conservative Republican opponent, Vogel.

The determining factor in which party gets control of the Senate could be voter turnout. Osborne speculated that Republican voters nationally and locally may not feel motivated to show up at the polls, while Democrats are highly motivated.

“Turnout matters very much,” he said. “Which side gets voters out makes a difference. We have nothing but state legislator races and local races in some areas. Some localities don’t even have any local races.”

David Lampo, vice president of the Log Cabin Republicans of Virginia, and Sean Holihan, Tidewater Chair of the Virginia Partisans Gay & Lesbian Democratic Club, gave a bi-partisan 2007 election preview at an Equality Virginia conference in July, where they discussed the state Senate race between Democrat Chap Petersen and Republican Jeannemarie Devolites Davis for District 34. Holihan said it was one of the most important races to watch this cycle.

In 2005, both candidates voted in favor of putting a marriage amendment that limits marriage to one man and one woman on the November 2006 ballot. However, while Devolites Davis campaigned in favor of it with Virginia Sen. George Allen, Peterson came out against the amendment just before the election. According to Holihan, Peterson said he was wrong to vote in favor of putting the amendment on the ballot and that after a contentious internal battle, the Partisans elected to endorse him.

“[Peterson] came to us and he wanted our support,” he said. “He said that he would be willing to work with us and make up for what he did. We’re taking him at his word. We think he will be a better vote in the Senate.”

During his presentation, Lampo defended his group’s decision to endorse Devolites Davis, despite her support of the marriage amendment in the last election. She was the sole Republican supporter of the Public Employee Non-Discrimination bill.

He said she is not a “down-the-line, party-first” Republican, and that there are Democrats and Republicans representing rural areas in the Assembly who are “works in progress.” These are politicians who have voted against some pro-gay bills and for others. He noted that some pro-gay bills have passed in the Assembly under Republican control.

“Every Senator, ...