Nov 02, 2007  | COMMENTS     

In an election year with no major statewide races, voter turnout could be the key factor in determining whether a stridently anti-gay lawmaker retains his seat in the Virginia General Assembly in next week’s election.

“With a low turnout election, those who do turn out to vote will have twice the impact,” said Tom Osborne, treasurer of the Virginia Partisans Gay & Lesbian Democratic Club. “It depends on who is more likely to turn out, those who love Bob Marshall or those who hate him. The trend statewide this time around is Democrats are more motivated than Republicans.”

Incumbent Marshall (R-13) is running for a House seat against Bruce Roemmelt for the second time. When the two squared off in 2005, voter turnout was 38.47 percent according to the State Board of Elections. A total of 28,793 votes were cast, with Marshall getting 15,754 votes to Roemmelt’s 12,633.

Osborne said the buzz is that turnout this year could be as low as 20 to 25 percent, however he also said other factors could help Marshall’s opponent collect more votes this time around.

“He will do better this time because he is better known,” Osborne said. “That district is less conservative than other districts, and it’s one of the fastest growing. There are a lot of new voters who do not have a habit of voting for Marshall. All of those things work for the Democrats in Northern Virginia.”

David Lampo, vice president of the Log Cabin Republican Club of Virginia, agreed Roemmelt could have a better chance of unseating Marshall this time around, though it will be an uphill battle.

“Bruce would have to have a really big break in his campaign,” Lampo said. “The last time Marshall won with 56 percent in a reliably Republican district.”

Roemmelt said he also expects the race to be tight, but that other factors could work favorably for him, such as the tremendous growth in his district — the fastest growing in the state with 10,000 new voters since the last election.

“Our job to convince them that I’m the guy and get them out to vote,” he said. “We’ve been contacting voters. I think it’s a great opportunity for them to have choice in the election.”

Roemmelt said Marshall’s core supporters are “still flaming passionate” in their opposition to gay issues, especially marriage, but that voters in the middle have moved on to other issues.

“It’s the people in the middle who could care less about making that their No. 1 priority,” he said. “It’s a big diverse culture here. Many people voted for Marshall because he has been around for years. It’s been too long and it’s time to fire him.”

Marshall didn’t return a call seeking comment.

Lampo compared the District 13 race to the race between progressive Democrat David Poisson and anti-gay Republican incumbent Dick Black, co-author of the 2004 Marriage Affirmation Act.

Marshall and Black have been described as two of the most anti-gay politicians in the General Assembly. Marshall co-authored last year’s Virginia marriage amendment and backed a bill to restrict gay and straight non-married couples from adopting children. Black was defeated in 2005.

Osborne said a Marshall victory would matter a lot less if Republicans end up with the minority of House seats.