Oct 17, 2008  |  By: ROBERT A. BERNSTEIN  | COMMENTS     

TIME IS RUNNING out for supporters of gay marriage everywhere to support the opposition to California’s Proposition 8, which would overturn the landmark pro-marriage Supreme Court decision in the nation’s largest state. Substantial earlier opposition to the measure now appears to be turning around.

Washington’s Harry Knox and his spouse, C. Michael Bozerman, were married in California in early August. I spoke with an ecstatic Knox a few weeks later, about the time a poll indicated that Proposition 8 then had relatively weak support, trailing the opposition by 17 points.

Harry and Michael were actively opposing the amendment, though they felt certain that it could not in any event jeopardize the legality of their own nuptials, Knox told me confidently, “Our wedding will not be annulled by the election one way or the other because it won’t be retroactive.”

Now, the polls have turned around, showing a majority favoring the ban. And if it does pass, the Knox-Bozerman union, along with some 14,000 or so others, would face a possibly prolonged court challenge.  (California Attorney General Jerry Brown has said the Supreme Court decision would “most probably” reject retroactivity, but Yes-on-8 supporters have vowed to take the issue to court.)
As I write, the most recent CBS/ SurveyUSA poll shows Californians supporting the amendment by a five-point margin, and most analysts are saying it is too close to call.

Why have the polls turned around? In short, the power of money, which has spawned a recently launched saturation campaign of often-distorted commercials aimed at arousing homophobic passions. Spurring the campaign in particular, is a flood of dollars from Mormons. One post by On Top Magazine quoted Fred Karger, campaign manager for Californians Against Hate, as stating that “at least 75 percent of Yes-on-8 funds have come from members of that church.”

THEIR FIRST AD features a video of San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom celebrating the Supreme Court pro-marriage decision and declaring smugly that “It’s going to happen — whether you like it or not.”  Then the ad shows a second-grade girl, just back from school, rushing into the kitchen to tell her mother excitedly that she had learned in school that day “about a prince who married another prince . . . And I can marry a princess!” Against a backdrop of the mother looking aghast, the announcer declares ominously that unless the amendment passes, “Teaching children about gay marriage will happen here.”

By contrast, the first “No on 8” TV commercial is strictly positive. It features a PFLAG couple, Sam and Julia Thoron of San Francisco, who have three children, one of them a gay daughter. Their concern, they say in the ad, is that the amendment would strip their daughter of a basic right enjoyed by their other two children and most other Californians.

Response to their ad has been “nearly universally positive,” according to Sam Thoron. At a legislative hearing, Thoron was even approached by some Yes on 8 activists who told him they respect him “for doing what you’re doing” and that they respected and liked the commercial, even though they “don’t happen to agree” with its conclusion.

THAT YES-ON-8 ad, however, has run far more widely.

And there are other problems. In the heat of one of history’s most important presidential elections, many first-time, straight but pro-gay, young voters might fail “to vote all the way down the ballot,” as Thoron puts it. Conversely, African Americans, many of whom oppose same-sex marriage, presumably will turn out in record numbers to support Barack Obama. 

The day after their marriage, when Harry Knox and Michael Bozerman had lunch at the Santa Monica pier, the restaurant owner, a woman, brought them dessert on the house in celebration. 

“We reminded her it’s important to vote to keep such marriages legal, and she said, ‘Oh, you know, I hadn’t thought about that. I guess I do need to vote.’”

Her response underlines the importance of all of us, everywhere, doing all we can to help swell the turnout of our California allies. You can donate online to Equality California or No on 8.