Sen. Hillary Clinton celebrates her
victory in Pennsylvania Tuesday with daughter Chelsea. Reactions to her
win and its ramifications for her campaign and the Democratic Party
were mixed among gays. (Photo by Charles Rex Arbogast/AP)
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JOSHUA LYNSEN
Friday, April 25, 2008
Gay supporters of Sen. Hillary Clinton’s presidential bid celebrated
this week after her victory in the Pennsylvania primary, but others
contend that she cannot catch up to rival Sen. Barack Obama in the hunt
for delegates.
Clinton topped Obama in the crucial Pennsylvania primary Tuesday by
10 points, taking an estimated 55 percent of the vote to his 45 percent.
“That was huge,” said Mirian Saez, a gay superdelegate from
California who backs Clinton. “I think it definitely shifts the
equation.”
Saez said Clinton’s win over Obama, the Democratic frontrunner, gave
her campaign new momentum and other benefits as the primary season
continues.
“What does it get her?” she said. “It gets her more popular vote. It
gets her time and cash to be able to go into these other states and
distinguish herself from Sen. Obama, like she did in Pennsylvania, like
she did in Ohio, like she did in Texas.”
Peter Rosenstein, a Washington political activist on Clinton’s gay
steering committee, said the victory also shows she can win another key
battleground state.
“There are five or six states the presidency will revolve around,
and Hillary has shown that she can attract seniors, women, Catholic
voters and basically the white men that we call Reagan Democrats,” he
said. “Those are the people who are giving her her victories, and those
are the people that Democrats need to win in November.”
But Dan Pinello, a City University of New York government professor
who is gay, said Clinton’s victory changed little in the continuing
primary contest.
“If she had had a 15- to 20-point spread in Pennsylvania, it would
be a different story,” he said. “But she eked out the absolute minimum
necessary for her to continue.”
Pinello said Clinton remains down about 150 pledged delegates, and
“there is no mathematical way now that she can win enough delegates to
lead in that race.”
About 500 pledged delegates are available in the nine remaining
caucuses and primaries. According to CNN tallies, Obama has 1,487
pledged delegates; Clinton has 1,331.
“In terms of the delegate race, Pennsylvania only had a minimal
role,” he said. “And that’s really the bottom line. The delegates
choose the nominee.”
Although she won all but a handful of counties in the state, Clinton
faltered in Philadelphia, where Obama took 65 percent of the vote, just
days after Clinton’s daughter, Chelsea, visited a handful of gay bars
in the city.
According to NBC News, the 28-year-old former first daughter joined
Gov. Ed Rendell to stop at Bump, Sisters and Woody’s on April 18. Gay
bar patrons greeted Chelsea enthusiastically.
“Chelsea, the gays love you,” one Bump patron reportedly exclaimed.
“Oh, gosh, I don’t know if everybody loves me,” she responded.
Obama won the city’s two heavily gay wards, taking 60 percent of the vote in Ward 2 and 58 percent in Ward 5.
“Bill Clinton in 1992 did the same thing himself, pledging among
other things to end the military ban, and look what happened,” Pinello
said. “So the informed LGBT voter is not going to put a lot of stock in
a Clinton doing the bar circuit in terms of real results.”
As the race between Clinton and Obama continued, one gay
superdelegate advocated setting an endgame that coincides with the
final primaries in June.
Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.) last week told the Associated Press that
the trailing candidate should exit the race no later than June 3, and
as soon as it becomes clear they have no remaining practical chance at
winning.
Frank, one of the party’s 20 openly gay superdelegates, has endorsed
Clinton and serves as her campaign’s economic adviser. But he said if
Clinton trails Obama on June 3, she should drop out of the race.
Other gay superdelegates were torn on the issue. Some said the
primary contest should end as soon as possible, while others were
hesitant to set a deadline.
“I’m not certain I really want to say when anyone should drop out,”
said Jeremy Bernard, a gay superdelegate from California who backs
Obama. “That’s a tough one.”
Bernard said he would not want to deprive any Democratic primary voter the ability to influence the process.
“What’s been neat about this season is that people have been able to
participate who haven’t been able to in years — or ever,” he said.
“There’s nothing wrong with going through all the primaries, letting
those people have a say, and then concluding it.”
But Jason Rae, a gay superdelegate from Wisconsin who backs Obama,
said the increasingly bitter battle between Clinton and Obama could be
doing the party more harm than good.
“It does hurt us a little that we are still fighting back and
forth,” Rae said. “All people are seeing is this constant bickering
back and forth.”
Campaign exchanges became particularly heated in the days before
Tuesday’s vote in Pennsylvania. Clinton and Obama each aired television
ads that attacked the other. One ad from Obama accused Clinton of
“11th-hour smears paid for by lobbyist money.”
Bernard said negative attacks aside, though, the continued contest between Clinton and Obama isn’t inherently bad.
“I’m not one of those that has fears this is doing the Democrats
enormous harm,” he said. “I think it could be doing them a lot of good.”
Bernard noted the prolonged primary has spurred “a record number of
people” to register as Democrats and vote, and would strengthen the
party’s eventual nominee.
“I actually feel good about this process,” he said. “I think it’s
great that it’s going on. I do believe this extended primary makes
whoever the candidate is a much better candidate. It’s one of the
things that did not happen four years ago. Our candidate was not as
prepared because it was over fairly quickly.”
Ray Buckley, chair of the New Hampshire Democratic Party, also was
disinclined to prematurely end the race between Clinton and Obama.
He said a deadline set before the Democratic National Convention in August could create more problems than it solves.
“You know what?” Buckley said. “We may not have a trailing candidate. What if they’re tied?”
Buckley, a gay superdelegate who remains uncommitted in keeping with
a state party chair tradition, said he would not dispute Frank’s
suggestion that it would be best for the trailing candidate to exit the
race June 3.
“I don’t ever disagree with my leaders,” he said. “Obviously, Barney
is a lot wiser than, well, anyone else. If that’s what he says, I’m
assuming he’s probably correct. But until we get there, I’ll sort of
reserve judgment.”
Buckley said at a minimum, though, Clinton and Obama should be allowed to campaign through the final primaries.
“I say let everybody have the opportunity to vote,” he said, “and let’s see where it is and let everyone make a judgment call.”
Despite the pledges from both candidates this week to press ahead,
Rae said he’s confident Clinton and Obama “are savvy enough” to know
they shouldn’t artificially push their contest any further than
necessary.
“I think both of them know it would just be bad for the party in
general,” he said. “And I think both of them have the utmost respect
for the party and for the country and will do what needs to be done,
even if it means they are not the nominee for the party, at least this
time around.”
Rae said as much as each candidate wants to win the nomination, they
want more for their party to win the White House in November.
“I think they realize this election is too important,” he said.
“This country suffered through eight years of a Bush administration and
it can’t afford to suffer through eight years of a McCain
administration.”
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