Jun 27, 2008  |  By: KEVIN NAFF  | COMMENTS     

a whopping nine points, according to Rasmussen.

THERE’S MUCH MORE bad news for McCain. A June 18 Quinnipiac poll shows Obama holding solid leads in the three key battleground states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, where he wins lopsided support from women. And according to a June 15 Rasmussen tracking poll, Obama now holds a slight lead among independents nationwide, a bloc once considered McCain’s bread and butter.

Log Cabin risks being swept under by this tide. Its president, Patrick Sammon, is a smart and articulate voice of moderation for the group. I do not envy his predicament: support McCain and risk landing on the wrong side of history or withhold a McCain endorsement and face mutiny from the conservative wing of the organization. 

Obama’s change message is so potent that I have accepted two bets from two very different bloggers: Michael Rogers of blogactive and GayPatriotWest, both of whom predict that McCain will do better among gay voters than Bush did and take at least 30 percent of the gay vote. Color me naïve and optimistic, but I’m hopeful that gay voters are smarter than that and will see the obvious peril of McCain making appointments to the Supreme Court. The terms of the bet: lunch with Rogers at Lauriol Plaza in D.C. and dinner with GayPatriotWest at a restaurant of the winner’s choosing, wine included.

Bring it on. They should know that I can eat my weight in burritos and that I have a thing for expensive Bordeaux.