LONDON (AP)
Nov 26 2008, 2:12 PM |
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The virus that causes AIDS could theoretically be eliminated in a
decade if all people living in countries with high infection rates are
regularly tested and treated, according to a new mathematical model.
It is an intriguing solution to end the AIDS epidemic.
But it is based on assumptions rather than data, and is riddled with
logistical problems. The research was published online Tuesday in the
medical journal, The Lancet.
"It's quite a startling result," said Charlie Gilks, an AIDS treatment expert at the World Health Organization and one of the paper's authors. "In a relatively short amount of time, we could potentially knock the epidemic on its head."
Gilks and colleagues used data from South Africa and Malawi. In
their model, people were voluntarily tested each year and immediately
given drugs if they tested positive for HIV, regardless of whether they
were sick.
Within 10 years, HIV infections dropped by 95 percent. Other
initiatives like safe sex education and male circumcision were also
used.
The strategy would cut the estimated number of AIDS deaths between
2008 and 2050 by about half, from about 8.7 million to 3.9 million,
leaving only sporadic HIV cases.
Experts think the strategy's cost would peak at about $3.4 billion a
year, though expenses would fall after an initial investment.
"This is certainly beyond the bounds of the current infrastructure
for many countries, but that is not a reason not to think big," said
Myron Cohen, of the University of North Carolina, who has done similar
research. He was not involved in the WHO study.
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